How to Calculate Your Heart Disease Risk

There are certain risk factors that can affect your chances of developing heart disease. Some of these factors are beyond your control, such as getting older, being male, or having a family history of heart disease. Other factors, however, you can control, including high blood pressure, high cholesterol, obesity, your amount of physical activity, and whether or not you smoke. In order to calculate your risk of developing heart disease, you will need to look at several different parameters and calculate the numbers that correlate with each parameter. You will then add up your score and see how it corresponds to your percentage risk of developing heart disease.

Set up an appointment with your doctor to get some lab work done. In order to calculate your risk of developing heart disease, you will have to have certain aspects of your health tested. In order to do this, contact your doctor and set up an appointment to run the following tests:
- Have your blood glucose level tested. Your doctor will take a sample of your blood and send it off to the lab. A normal blood glucose level is around 7.8 mmol/L.
- Have your doctor measure your blood pressure. Ask your doctor or any health personnel to measure your blood pressure. Note down the value of your blood pressure (this will be discussed in length later on in this article).
- Run tests on your LDL and HDL levels. This also requires a blood sample. LDL is bad cholesterol, while HDL is good cholesterol. A healthy LDL level is generally below 100 mg/dL, while a healthy HDL is around 40 mg/dL.
- Know that your doctor may suggest other tests, including ECG, echocardiogram, serum creatinine, and complete blood count (CBC). ECG and echocardiogram identify if you have any existing heart diseases such as enlargement of the heart, poor contractility, damage of heart walls from previous heart attack etc. CBC is a routine blood test that detects if you have normal amount of blood cells, anemia, or infection. Serum creatinine is also a blood test and reflects kidney function. These tests are not required to calculate your heart disease risk but your doctor may want to see if you have any existing disease or complication related to the cardiovascular system.
Consider your age when thinking about heart disease. The risk of heart disease increases with age for both men and women. Heart disease is relatively uncommon in people younger than 30 years old. Women run a slightly lower risk of heart disease than men of the same age group.
- If you are male: Count minus 1 point if you are between 30 and 34 years of age. Add one point for every 5 years. That is, if you are between 65 and 69 years of age, add 6 points. The highest age group (70 to 74 year olds) should add 7 points.
- If you are female: Take minus 9 points if you are between 30 and 34 years of age. Similarly, take minus 4 for 35 to 39, 0 for 40 to 44, 3 for 45 to 49, 6 for 50 to 54, 7 for 55 to 59 and 8 for 60 to 74 years.
Calculate points based on your LDL levels.

LDL cholesterol are lipids that are bad for your heart and blood vessels. They are deposited in the wall of your coronary arteries (blood vessels in the heart) which causes plaque to form. This plaque impedes blood flow and can lead to heart disease.
- If you are male: Take minus 3 points if your LDL level is below 100 mg/dL. Similarly, take 0 for 100 to 159 mg/dL, 1 for 160 to 190 mg/dL and 2 for more than 190 mg/dL.
- If you are female: Take minus 2 points if your LDL level is below 100 mg/dL. Similarly, take 0 for 100 to 159 mg/dL and 2 for more than 160 mg/dL.
Factor in your HDL cholesterol. HDL cholesterol is known as good cholesterol because they help to lower your risk of cardiovascular diseases. They help to transport bad lipids back to the liver, where they are disposed of.
- If you are male: Take 2 points if your HDL level is below 35 mg/dL. Similarly, take 1 for 35 to 44 mg/dL, 0 for 45-59 mg/dL and minus 1 for more than or equal to 60 mg/dL.
- If you are female: Take 5 points if your HDL level is below 35 mg/dL. Similarly, take 2 for 35 to 44 mg/dL, 1 for 45 to 49 mg/dL, 0 for 50 to 59 mg/dL and minus 2 for more than or equal to 60 mg/dL.
Consider your blood pressure as it relates to heart disease. Blood pressure can have a tremendous impact on heart disease. High blood pressure is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease. Blood pressure has two values; the upper value is called systolic pressure and the lower value is called diastolic pressure. The optimal blood pressure for adults is less than 120/80 mm-Hg (120 for systolic and 80 for diastolic). Blood pressure that is more than 140/90 mm-Hg is called hypertension. The target blood pressure for people who have diabetes, hypertension and chronic kidney disease is less than 140/90 mm-Hg (with medical treatment and lifestyle modification).
- If you are male: Add 0 points if your blood pressure is less than 130/85 mm-Hg. Take 1 for systolic pressure 130-139 mm-Hg and diastolic pressure 85-89 mm-Hg. Take 2 for systolic pressure 140 to 159 mm-Hg and diastolic pressure 90 to 99 mm-Hg. Take 3 for systolic pressure more than or equal to 160 mm-Hg and diastolic pressure more than or equal to 100 mm-Hg.
- If you are female: Add minus 3 points if your blood pressure is less than 120/80 mm-Hg. Take 0 for systolic pressure 120 to 139 mm-Hg and diastolic pressure 80 to 89 mm-Hg. Take 2 for systolic pressure 140 to 159 mm-Hg and diastolic pressure 90 to 99 mm-Hg. Take 3 for systolic pressure more than or equal to 160 mm-Hg and diastolic pressure more than or equal to 100 mm-Hg.
- If your systolic and diastolic pressures fall in different point ranges, take the higher one. For example, if you are male and your systolic pressure is 170 mm-Hg (3 points range) and diastolic pressure is 90 mm-Hg (2 points range), take the higher one, which is 3.
Think about the state of your diabetes (if you have diabetes). Diabetes promotes the influx of free fatty acids from fatty tissues to blood vessel walls. The fatty acids are then oxidized, producing reactive oxygen species (ROS). ROS directly damage vessel walls, promoting the formation of atherosclerotic plaques which lead to various heart events like myocardial infarction and angina.^[2]
- If you do not have diabetes: Add 0 points (either male or female).
- If you have diabetes or take antidiabetic drugs: If you are male, add 2 points and if you are female, add 4 points.
7
Know that smoking increases your chances of heart disease. Chemicals in tobacco directly damage heart muscle and blood vessels. Smoking promotes atherosclerosis, lowers HDL cholesterol and raises blood pressure.^[3]
- For both male and female: Add 0 points if you are a non-smoker and add 2 points if you are a smoker. You are considered a smoker if you have smoked in the previous month.

Method 2 of 2: Assessing the Results

1
Add up the points. You have now scored all of the parameters. Add up all of the points that you calculated in the previous section. This is your final score.
- For example, if you are a 62 year old lady (8 points), non-smoker (0 point), diabetic (4 points) with blood pressure 130/80 mm-Hg (0 point), HDL level 45 mg/dL (1 point) and LDL level 140 mg/dL (0 point), your final score will be 8+0+4+0+1+0= 13.
2
Calculate your risk of heart disease. There is a standard chart that relates total points with 10 year heart disease risk as expressed by a percentage. The points-risk relationship is different for males and females.^[4]
3
Calculate your risk if you are male. If you are a male, total points less than -3 represents 1% risk of heart disease in the next 10 years. Similarly:
- 2% risk if you have -2 or -1 points
- 3% for 0 points
- 4% for 1 or 2 points
- 6% for 3 points
- 7% for 4 points
- 9% for 5 points
- 11% for 6 points
- 14% for 7 points
- 18% for 8 points
- 22% for 9 points
- 27% for 10 points
- 33% for 11 points
- 40% for 12 points
- 47% for 13 points
- More than 56% for 14 points or more.
- For example, 40 people out of 100 who have 12 total points will have a heart attack or cardiac event in the next 10 years.
4
Calculate your risk if you are female. If you are a female, a total point score of less than -2 points represents 1% risk of heart disease in the next 10 years. Similarly:
- 2% risk for -1, 0 or 1 point
- 3% for 2 or 3 points
- 4% for 4 points
- 5% for 5 points
- 6% for 6 points
- 7% for 7 points
- 8% for 8 points
- 9% for 9 points
- 11% for 10 points
- 13% for 11 points
- 15% for 12 points
- 17% for 13 points
- 20% for 14 points
- 24% for 15 points
- 27% for 16 points
- More than 32% for 17 points or more.
- This data indicates that females have significantly less risk of heart disease irrespective of age.
5
Make changes to lower your risk. If you have a 20% or higher chance of having a heart condition in the next 10 years, you should seriously consider making some lifestyle changes. While you cannot control your age, you can control many of the other parameters. For example, if you have high LDL cholesterol, you can reduce your cholesterol by exercising regularly and taking lipid lowering drugs.